game of thrones
More info i
Courtesy of HBO

Complex (and morbid) data algorithm predicts Game of Thrones deaths

Contributed by
May 10, 2018, 6:30 PM EDT (Updated)

The final season of Game of Thrones is still a ways away, and while we don't know what will happen to all of our favorite (and least favorite... Euron... cough...) characters in Westeros, we are fairly certain that not all of them will make it out of the show's finale with a pulse. "Who lives, who dies" is one of the many things that keeps us on our proverbial couch-edges while watching the HBO smash, and one fan has now taken the life/death prediction game to another level.

As reported by Entertainment Weekly, a data scientist working for the Boston-based company DataRobot has written "a complex algorithm" to predict what characters will live, and which ones will go the way of so very many Starks... sorry... characters before them.

The algorithm was created by Taylor Larkin, who studied and analyzed 2,000 characters, both living and dead, from A Song of Ice and Fire (the book series on which the show is based). He took certain traits into consideration, such as gender — apparently, female Thrones characters have a lower death rate than males, and that's likely the only good thing the women of the insanely misogynistic Westeros have going for them. Other factors included age, house (Targaryens usually don't last long), nobility, and how many family losses some of these characters have already had.

Using "automated machine learning," Larkin attempted to predict which still-kicking characters would cease to kick by the end of the show's eighth and final season.

This is computer-based speculation, but if HBO's other big genre hit, Westworld, has taught us anything, it's that computers can sometimes have a better grasp of things than many humans do. Such is to say...


Here's what the algorithm predicted:

Daenerys Targaryen – 83.77% chance of death

Jaime Lannister – 72.91% chance of death

Tyrion Lannister – 70.76% chance of death

Bran Stark – 66.02% chance of death

Cersei Lannister – 60.39% chance of death

Jon Snow – 58.99% chance of death

Euron Greyjoy – 54.95% chance of death

Sansa Stark – 50.28% chance of death

Arya Stark – 49.04% chance of death

Gendry – 39.87% chance of death

Um... okay. First off, if they kill Daenerys Stormborn we will lead a revolt. The entire series has depicted her slow rise to power, so killing her off at the end of it would be, let's say, anticlimactic? Also, Tyrion Lannister at over 70 percent? Don't think so. Once again, touch him in a way that we even slightly don't like, and you'll have a revolt.

The good news is that the Stark sisters of Sansa and Arya are pretty low on the list. Apparently the only character who is more likely to survive the brilliant and deadly Arya Stark is... Gendry? First sign of trouble, Gendry can just jump back in his rowboat and avoid the whole thing, we suppose. Keep on rowing, Gendry. Row for your life.

We don't necessarily like how "safe" Euron Greyjoy appears to be (he can die, it's fine), and there is no mention at all of our beloved Davos Seaworth. Does that mean that he is algorithmically guaranteed to survive?

Whether this creepy death-prediction bit of new math will be accurate is anyone's guess. We won't know anything for certain until the show comes back in 2019, but here's hoping that these predictions are way off. These numbers are crazy enough to make us want to eat every damn chicken in this room.

(via Entertainment Weekly)