It appears as though losing content from Disney isn’t as big of a blow to Netflix as it seems, since more and more viewers are preferring the streaming service’s original series like Stranger Things and Chilling Adventures of Sabrina to licensed content.
At least that's the conclusion of a new study, which claims that demand for Netflix Originals is estimated to overtake the share of demand for licensed titles by October 2019.
In an analysis of demand for Netflix’s content provided to SYFY WIRE (and first reported by Deadline), media research group Parrot Analytics and Kagan (a division within S&P Global Market Intelligence) compared the sum of U.S. demand for both Netflix original series and the licensed titles available on the U.S. Netflix service each month. While currently the most in-demand content tends to be licensed titles, the proportion of the demand share from Netflix original titles has grown on a month-over-month basis.
Overall demand for Netflix originals grew an average of 1% each month for the 12 months analyzed. From July 2017 to June 2018, the streaming service’s reliance on licensed content dropped by 11%. Based on this data, the report forecasts that half of Netflix's content for its U.S. audience will comprise original programming, beginning October 2019 onward.
In other words, Netflix's investment in such original series as Stranger Things, The Haunting of Hill House, Maniac and Chilling Adventures of Sabrina is paying off.
This isn't the only report to support this idea. Earlier this week, data from research firm 7Park Data revealed that Netflix originals took up six of the top 10 spots on the platform’s most-watched shows last month.
These reports must serve as a huge relief for Netflix execs, as the recent Disney-Fox merger and impending launch of Disney+ is causing the streaming giant to lose a lot of popular content. Not only that, but recent and upcoming entrants into the streaming-service battle like Disney, Facebook Watch, YouTube, and DC Universe are making the space increasingly competitive.
The report also predicts that content spending for Netflix, Amazon, and Hulu is expected to continue to grow at double-digit rates — and in order to survive, they’re going to have to.
“The future for the industry is likely to be even more crowded and the winners are still unknown,” said Deana Myers, Research Director, S&P Global Market Intelligence, in a statement accompanying the research. “Walt Disney is expected to debut its SVOD service in 2019 and its proposed buy of the studio and libraries of 21st Century Fox will add a vast amount of content to this service. Other anticipated SVOD launches include those by Apple and Warner Media.”
Myers added: “We estimate the overall US SVOD industry has many strong years of growth in its future, particularly as competition from Disney and Apple could impact the market.”