Earlier this month, the box office projections for Solo: A Star Wars Story indicated that the spinoff film would hit $170 million during its opening weekend. However, with the opening only a few days away, the numbers have come down by a considerable margin.
According to Variety, the current estimate is that Solo will reach $130 to $150 over the weekend, which will be more than enough to unseat Deadpool 2 and Avengers: Infinity War for the weekend crown. However, that’s potentially $40 million less than the initial predictions.
What happened to that $40 million? It’s difficult to accurately predict a film’s performance when the projections are so high. The pre-sale numbers for Solo were reportedly robust three weeks ago, with greater sales than any other film this year except for Infinity War. As Variety notes, there is still a chance that Solo will beat its current projection. It could even potentially get $180 million when the entire four-day holiday weekend is included in the total.
This is uncharted territory for Star Wars films. Solo is the first movie in the franchise to open less than six months after the previous installment. It’s also facing fiercer competition at the summer box office than it would have received in December, where we've seen the past few Star Wars films opening. Whether that will greatly affect Solo’s long-term prospects remains to be seen.
Speaking of Star Wars films that opened in December, Netflix has just announced that The Last Jedi will be available for streaming in June. Given that timeline, it stands to reason that Solo could also end up on Netflix by the end of the year. That may also unintentionally encourage some fans to simply wait to see it. Probably not you though, right?
Solo: A Star Wars Story will be out on Friday, May 25.