Statistical AI predicts Batman v Superman has 32 percent chance of being profitable

Contributed by
Feb 17, 2016, 4:34 PM EST

There’s already a lot of buzz about just how much Warner Bros. has riding on the upcoming release of Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, and now someone has actually crunched the numbers. Considering the film’s extremely high budget, it ain’t lookin’ too hot.

Reports have been circulating that the studio is “nervous” about Batman v Superman, with some early test screenings not going as well as expected, and if the film falters it could lead to a reconfiguration of the overall DC universe plan — namely more of Ben Affleck’s Batman, and possibly less Zack Snyder. This is all rumor-mill type of stuff at the moment, and as always, it’ll come down to just how much money the epic meeting of the Dark Knight and Man of Steel can muster at the box office.

A new report from The Mail Online, which cites a computer science algorithm that analyzed 2,500 movies from the past decade, has put together a profitability projection for the epic superhero clash. According to the data, the film has a 32 percent chance of being profitable — which doesn’t sound too crazy — considering they’ve pumped in millions more into marketing, on top of the film’s reported $200 million budget. Many experts are saying it’s $1 billion globally or bust for Batman v Superman (which would put it in the same stratosphere as The Avengers).

The algorithm apparently factors in the director/cast partnership (have they made big movies together before, etc.); the average gross of a director’s previous movies; the release date; bankability of the full cast; and annual profit percentage of the genre. Is this ironclad math? No, obviously not. Plus, as films like Deadpool have proven, you never can fully predict what will hit and miss with moviegoing audiences. But it’s interesting nonetheless.

Seeing Batman and Superman face off for the first time will be monumental, for sure — but Man of Steel didn’t really light the world on fire, and the jury is still out over whether giving Snyder a bigger budget and a bigger sandbox is the right direction for DC.

What do you think? Will Batman v Superman be an Avengers-level hit, or the next Amazing Spider-Man 2?



(Via The Mail Online)