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Vegas oddsmakers analyze who will win and who will die on Game of Thrones

By Brian Silliman

The house may always win in Las Vegas, but when it comes to Westeros, there's more than one house to choose from. In the world of Game of Thrones, you win or you die, and oddsmakers are giving odds on both of those things in advance of the show's final season on HBO.

Let's just say that it's not a great time to be a Greyjoy. Is it ever? No. The answer is no.

According to the latest statistics on, Bran "Three-Eyed Emo" Stark is the current favorite to end up on the Iron Throne, with odds of -150. This is something of a surprise — Bran is proving to be more powerful by the episode, but he is also more than a little unhelpful. Rather than just laying things out as they are, he talks in riddle circles that are probably driving his siblings bonkers. Perhaps he's more magical-tree-person now than man, and maybe that's what Westeros needs? We don't doubt that everyone's favorite roof-falling, incest-observing, Season 5 non-participant will be pivotal to how the story wraps up, but trading his wheelchair for a non-wheeled chair made of swords? We don't know.

Bran is currently followed by someone who makes a little more sense — Jon Snow, not really a bastard, knower-of-nothing, and stealth Targaryen. His odds stand at +600, and we can see why. Jon has gotten huge hot pies of shade from most of this show's cast since the very start, and he's always been treated as "less than" because of his (presumed) bastard status. As we all found out at the end of last season, Jon isn't a bastard at all — not only that, technically he's the true heir to the throne. He's been eating non-stop crow for no reason, and taking his place on the dagger chair would wipe many a smirk off many a face.

This is Game of Thrones, though, so not only is it not going to be that simple, it'll probably involve incest, which Jon is already enjoying. He's fallen in love with his aunt, Daenerys Targaryen. She's fallen for him too, and they're currently goin' at it. They don't know they're related yet, and Daenerys (who many have assumed would end up on the Pointy Seat) doesn't know about Jon's potential claim to the throne. (Jon doesn't either, for that matter ... you could say that he knows nothing about it.)

The odds have a child born of Dany and Jon taking the throne at #3, with odds of +800. This would require some magic, because last time we checked (post-Rhaego) Dany was told that she would never be able to have children again. Daenerys herself fares far less well — she's down at #7, with odds of +1200. Watching Aquaman die, dealing with both Qarth and Meereen, spending six seasons to cross a sea, and then not becoming queen? That doesn't seem fair. Sansa Stark has better odds (+800), as does the Sauron of the show, the Night King (+1000). Coming in right ahead of Dany (with +1000) is Tyrion "greatest character of all time" Lannister, and coming up after her (with surprising odds of +1600) is ... Gendry? Good thing he finally got out of that rowboat, we guess — maybe he has some secret claim that we'll find out about. You get a claim! You get a claim! Everyone gets a claim!

Arya Stark comes in after Gendry with odds of +1800, and then there's a big gap to the next contender, who comes in with odds of +2500. Those odds would belong to Cersei, the current occupant of the seat. ... Vegas (and most fans) don't seem to think that she's gonna stay in power for long. The most distant odds charted so far are both at +10000, for Euron Greyjoy and Varys. With the former, yeah, not gonna happen. With the latter, we'd love it, but it's unlikely. Hot Pie was not listed, and neither was the rotting corpse of Walder Frey.

The site also has odds for which character might have the honor of being the first to die in the final season, and here's where the Greyjoys really shine. The salt 'n' vinegar pirate family holds the top three spots. Nice Guy Euron is at the top, with odds of +145 that he will be the first to die. Yara (Asha) comes in next (with odds of +300), which, once again, doesn't seem fair — Yara/Asha is the only tolerable Greyjoy. Her brother, Theon "sibling of the year" Greyjoy, is right behind her with odds of +500.

Fourth on the "death list" is Cersei, once again proving how much people love to hate her. She has odds of +650, though this doesn't seem realistic to us. We don't think she's gonna survive the series, but the first to die? That would be something of a waste. We're glad that Arya and Tyrion are near the bottom here (both with odds of +5000), because we really couldn't face either death. Jon Snow seems the safest (with odds of +10000), and that's the upside to already dying and coming back to life.

These odds are as of January 25 (at Bovada) according to Oddshark, so things may already be shifting. Hopefully things will start to look up for Dany, and continue to look bad for the Greyjoys. As for Bran, we suppose anything is possible. If he ends up on the throne in the end, he'll finally be able to break out that "I got pushed out a window and all I got were these lousy seven kingdoms" novelty T-shirt that Old Nan secretly made for him years ago.

The odds are at 100 percent that the premiere of the final season of Game of Thrones will hit HBO on April 14. Valar morghulis.